🔗 Share this article

The last time Vladimir Putin visited the South Asian nation four years ago, the international order was markedly different. The brief visit, curtailed by the global health crisis, focused on talks on strategic and defense cooperation between the two leaders.

Months later, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would transform the Russian leader into a figure of international condemnation, significantly restricting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that period preceded a significant shift in ties between Washington and Delhi, marked by contentious rhetoric and the imposition of heavy trade tariffs.

"Against this backdrop, the significance of Putin's journey to meet Modi cannot be overstated, serving as a signal of resilient relations and a defiance of outside coercion," analysts note.

A Pivotal Moment for Both Nations

The summit takes place at a crucial time. President Putin comes after dismissing recent peace proposals for Ukraine, confident due to reported gains by Russian forces.

"From Moscow's perspective, the key significance of this visit is its very occurrence," stated a senior researcher based in Moscow. "It indicates a return to a form of normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the risks are even higher. The country faces a difficult geopolitical climate, characterized by a less engaged United States, a weakened Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

The tightrope walk was underscored just before the visit, when European ambassadors published a public commentary criticizing Russia's commitment to peace. This prompted a sharp response from Indian officials, who called it an unacceptable interference.

The Enduring Challenge from the North

The India-Russia bond dates back to the Cold War era and is deeply entrenched, with Moscow historically being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This relationship was largely tolerated by the West before a change in approach.

Over time, Western nations overlooked India's large-scale buying of discounted Russian oil. However, in the wake of stalled diplomacy, pressure increased, leading to economic penalties and a major chill in transatlantic relations with Delhi.

"In response, India has returned to its traditional posture of 'hedging'," explained a foreign policy expert. "This demonstrates to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Apart from global diplomacy, India's fundamental concern with Russia is its strategic location. "China remains the greatest threat to India, and historically, India has depended on Russia as a counterweight against China," the analyst added.

The strengthening Moscow-Beijing axis has raised alarms in Delhi, leading to efforts to avoid an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its longtime partner.

This apprehension has also accelerated India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, shrinking its reliance on Russian equipment from about 70% to a reduced portion in the past few years.

"India will attempt to strike a balance: purchase enough Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but not become overly reliant that a supply disruption would cripple its defenses," the analyst remarked.

The Oil Question

Enhanced economic cooperation is likely to be a major topic. President Putin has recently stressed plans to take cooperation with India to a "qualitatively new level", defying Western sanctions.

The matter of energy imports is central. While the Indian government has stated to continue buying Russian oil, new sanctions have dampened activity from the private sector. Simultaneously, India has agreed to increase imports of American oil and gas.

A Kremlin spokesperson admitted "hurdles" in energy trade but said it would continue uninterrupted. The official minimized the impact of sanctions, stating they would cause only "insignificant" and "temporary" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "technology" to circumvent them.

Diplomatic Constraints

When the two leaders sit down, the topic of Ukraine is expected to be addressed mainly through India's standard call for dialogue and peace.

"While the Indian leader has access to both sides, the nation does not possess the diplomatic clout to alter the course of the war," the analyst said. "Aside from encouraging talks, its ability to make a difference is limited."

In the end, despite the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the partnership is fundamentally one of "pure realpolitik," driven by cold calculation in a rapidly changing world.